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The NLS Annotated Bibliography - User Submission Form
AKERLOF, GEORGE A. MAIN, BRIAN G. An Experience-Weighted Measure of Employment and Unemployment Durations American Economic Review 71,5 (December 1981): 1003-1011 Cohort(s): Older Men ID Number: 26 Publisher: American Economic Association Permission to reprint the abstract has not been received from the publisher. This study displays empirical estimates of a measure of the average length of a spell in which an employment-year and unemployment-week is utilized. The results show that unemployment durations are all longer by large multiples. Most employment experience is spent in jobs that are quite long. Even though there may be less permanence than previous times, the average male is employed in a job of long standing; therefore, there exists a considerable degree of permanence in the labor market. AKERLOF, GEORGE A. MAIN, BRIAN G. Maximum Likelihood Estimation with Pooled Observations: An Example from Labor Economics International Economic Review 21,3 (October 1980): 507-515 Cohort(s): Older Men ID Number: 27 Publisher: U.S. International Trade Commission The difficulty of pooled observations in a data base arises when, for each sample point, some characteristic is measured exactly up to a certain level, but no record is made if the characteristic should exceed that boundary. This poses obvious problems if it is desired to perform a maximum likelihood estimate of the probability of an event. It is shown that whereas most researchers use ad hoc methods, it is possible to solve this problem by a non-ad hoc procedure which is illustrated by an example from labor economics. The example arises from a study of the weekly probability of transition from employment to unemployment using the NLS of Older Men. It is assumed that the probability of predicting whether an individual will be employed or unemployed in the following week can be represented as a logistic function of personal characteristics. A method is illustrated by which pooled data can be incorporated into maximum likelihood estimation in an exact fashion. AKERLOF, GEORGE A. ROSE, ANDREW K. YELLEN, JANET L. Waiting for Work Working Paper, University of California - Berkeley, April 2002. Prepared for Imperfect Economics: Essays in Honor of Joseph Stiglitz. Also: http://faculty.haas.berkeley.edu/arose/waitwork.pdf Cohort(s): NLSY79 ID Number: 28 Publisher: Author Permission to reprint the abstract has not been received from the publisher. This paper was prepared for Imperfect Economics: Essays in Honor of Joseph Stiglitz. It is adapted from our earlier unpublished paper with the same title, NBER Working Paper No. 3385, May 1990.
This paper explains upward job mobility and observed patterns of unemployment by skill as an economy recovers from a recession. Skilled unemployment is due to rational waiting by workers looking for long-term jobs when there is a 'lock-in' effect. Lock-in occurs if the conditions in the labor market when a worker first accepts a job have a persistent effect on wages. Using data from the NLSY, the authors provide empirical evidence of the cyclical pattern of wages predicted by the theory and also of lock-in.
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